Showing posts with label success. Show all posts
Showing posts with label success. Show all posts

Monday, August 18, 2008

Finally Start -- or Improve -- Your Very Own Business

The last few months have been busy between personal projects, client projects, and several out of town trips. Anyhow this morning, I ran across a nifty looking resource which inspired this post, which is dedicated to all of those out there who dream of going out "on their own", have already tried and struggled but still plow along, or who are doing alright but are always in search of how to get better.

The site I ran across is:

"My Own Business, Inc. is a nonprofit organization committed to helping people succeed in business. The course is presented by successful business owners who point out the common, avoidable mistakes. Our course is geared toward the entrepreneur who wants to start his or her own business, and the individual who has an established small business and would like to see that business grow and expand. Most people fail in business because they make avoidable mistakes! This free course teaches you what those mistakes are and how to avoid them."
The course is on-line, covers a lot of ground, appears to stick to the practical aspects rather than lots of theory, and has words from actual entrepreneurs like you spread throughout.

On a similar note, nearly everyone knows about local Chamber of Commerce organizations and groups such as Rotary which can be useful for networking (maybe, depending on how you do it). But most areas, including SLO County where I'm based, have a number of useful organizations specifically for those who are on their own and are either just starting or looking to take things up a notch (whether they are full-time or part-time ventures). For example:
Best of luck in all your endeavors!

-jr

Thursday, June 5, 2008

Fix The Incongruency - Consider Blogging for Your Company for Fun & Profit

Today I was perusing a marketing book by Chris Baggott et al. (that I haven't actually read yet in full)...and I came across the below passage in the first chapter. I thought it summed up pretty well one of strong arguments for considering having someone within your organization blogging (among other means of connecting with your customers and other constituents such as newsletters, etc.). Give it a whirl around your brain and send me your comments -- if you have any:

What's really funny to me is the fact that when you talk to organizations about what makes them different (worthy, if you will), this answers always lands somewhere in the top three: our people.

So why do you hide your people behind the facade of a brand or an institution? At the end of the day, people associate themselves with other people that they like. Your constituents want to like you and have a relationship with you.
-jr

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Finally Was Time To Hire An Assistant

Well, I finally broke down. I hired Sandy and the fact that I can call her anytime with my speed dial is amazing, though it's still taking some adjustment to get used to not having to do it all by myself. She makes sure I don't forget to do things, reminds me about appointments, looks up information for me, calls ahead to let folks know I'm on my way or running late, and jots down thoughts and ideas that occur to me while I'm out and about away from my computer. Oh, and because she gets along well with others, there are endless possibilities to improve how I work. If this trial continues to be so promising, and thus I decide to keep her around, I just hope I can continue to afford her along with the tools she needs to do her job.

-jr

Thursday, January 3, 2008

Is Risk Aversion Our Greatest, Uhm, Risk?

Are WE Holding Ourselves Back?

(This is a draft of an informal essay I wrote today. Figured this would be a good place to post it and garner some feedback). A brief excerpt:

"Often we're concerned about failure. The great irony about the perception most humans have about taking risks and failing is that it nearly insures that most of us will, in fact, have the greatest failure of all: never seeing our most fruitful ideas turned into reality and achieving our most important goals in life. Our built in risk aversion is really, quite ironically, our greatest risk of all. A wolf in sheep's clothing."

"The truth is that most of us can handle far more “risk” than we currently do. On the other hand, we could do with a lot less of the risks we do chose to take on...."
Most of us are capable of far more than we give ourselves credit for. Fortunately, we are the only ones holding ourselves back.

Usually due to a combination of starting something worthwhile but not finishing it and coming up with a good idea but not doing anything about it (taking action), we stand still or, at best, make very very slow progress. Thus, at best, even if we make some progress towards our goals we still do not end up actually passing the goal line.

Often we're concerned about failure. The great irony about the perception most humans have about taking risks and failing is that it nearly insures that most of us will, in fact, have the greatest failure of all: never seeing our most fruitful ideas turned into reality and achieving our most important goals in life. Our built in risk aversion is really, quite ironically, our greatest risk of all. A wolf in sheep's clothing.

Our perception of the risks of most failures are outlandish. While there are certainly some things that are risky enough they could, say, kill us outright, most failures are far less dramatic. Some types of failures can be quite stressful to be sure. Some may even shorten our lives by a few years (due to the stress, though even a bit of short-term stress can sometimes be worth it if it makes the remaining years that much more satisfying). But nowhere near the percentage we think -- of “risky ideas” that we all come up with in our day to day lives -- are even half as horrifying in impact, if we were to take action and fail, as we might convince ourselves they are.

Our comfort zones hold us back. However nearly all good things that come to us, arise from somewhere outside of our comfort zones. Taking on our first real job. Driving for the first time. Taking an entrance or certification exam for a college program, to teach, or some other program we want to pursue to push our careers forward. Marrying for love. Having our first child. Flying for the first time. Learning to swim. Passing a difficult test that forced us to really learn the subject matter rather than simply memorizing a few key concepts. Learning to take our first step (though most of us will lack firsthand memory on this one). Asking someone attractive (in whatever way you deem important) out on a date or even simply for coffee. Starting a blog and posting our real thoughts, opinions, and ideas out there for the world to yell back that we're wrong. :)

While each of these can be stressful in the moment, that feeling soon subsides (especially with practice and time). Without these stretches, life would be so boring and, well, lifeless. We grow, becoming more comfortable in our new terrain. When viewed with a receptive mind, we even learn a lot from our failures.

Nearly all “firsts” in our lives are outside of our comfort zone. In fact, some of them may even be far more realistically life threatening than the other ideas and opportunities that we chose not to take action on. So much for our built-in perceived versus real risks radars.

When I was starting my most recent consulting business I knew there was a good chance that cash would get a little tight for a while. Since I knew that was a high probability outcome along the way towards my goals, I could plan to address it. I could take some actions to handle the looming issue and I could think through some of the options I'd have, depending on how bad things got when the time came. To me, that wasn't really a risk. I trusted myself and thought my way through it. There are few situations in life where we have absolutely no options. It wasn't that I didn't worry about having money to pay the rent and buy food. It wasn't that it didn't stress me out. It was more that the real risks that scared me more than the others were the things that I might have fail(ed) to anticipate and plan. To a certain extent, the ones entirely (or mostly) outside of my control, were a big deal but, again, it's all about having options. As long as I was confident I'd have options, the number of real risks in my world quickly shrunk and became manageable.

The truth is that most of us can handle far more “risk” than we currently do. On the other hand, we could do with a lot less of the risks we do chose to take on....

Our perceptions that result in us not taking on risks that we should while continuing to do things that we shouldn't are even more humorous when considered in another light. I got my first credit card when I was eighteen. It was an American Express. A Mastercard soon followed. At first, I had the money so it really wasn't a big deal. Then I left my comfy job to try my hand as a pseudo-partner in a friend's business venture. That fizzled out. I had some savings from a well timed stock option sell-out. It didn't take long to burn through that. After all, I'd gotten used to a pretty good salary (even if I hadn't been only eighteen at the time). I temporarily struck out on my own (consulting without any specific plan other than to explore new business opportunities) and then, a short time later, became a partner in another new business venture. Well, my financial situation changed quite a bit over that time period. And, like many early entrepreneurs without a solid win under their belts, my partners and I didn't pay ourselves much since we were in start-up mode. But, hey, I didn't have to change my lifestyle – I still had all those credit cards, right?

Give nearly anyone a few dollars and they'll have no problem finding a way to spend it to get something they need (let's not worry about the distinction between need and want for today). Now combine that with easy access to credit (credit cards and home equity loans are the most common current incarnations). Coupled with the basic desires that we all have to please ourselves, get a bit of instant gratification from time to time, and reward ourselves for a job well done or some ill we suffered that day, and our perceptions of risk go out the door.

Suddenly we're no longer thinking about how we'll afford to pay off that large credit card balance next month, how much extra we'll really have paid for today's little indiscretion due to the compounding interest we'll have paid before the balance is gone months or years down the road, and, worse in my mind, the opportunity cost that slowly at first and incrementally over time builds up until we have convinced ourselves that we “just don't have the money to do whatever we want”.

We want everything now so much that we put ourselves in a permanent position of never actually getting what we want. Irony can hurt, especially when it's wired into the standard operating procedure of our brains. It's a bit like the inverse of “wanting to have our cake and eat it too”. We use perceived risks as excuses not to do the things we really should if we actually want to achieve our goals. And we toss out the real matter-of-fact risks when it comes to acquiring the things we could probably do without for just a bit longer. If only... If only...

“I want it now, the future be damned!” Don't get me wrong. There's a time and a place for this attitude – it can be what gets us through some days. We're all human and I doubt we're supposed to be perfect all the time. Besides it's no fun to be perfect. The problem is recognizing when it has become a habit, a regular occurrence, and something that we keep doing even while making excuses about not doing the things we know we really should. (Sadly it can become a feedback loop unto itself, it almost being worse if we are aware that this is what is going on but don't have the strength left to pull oneself out of it so we feed the indiscretion monster more to get through each day and it gets worse -- so watch out!)

While we can be our own worst enemies, remember that is a good thing as well. It means it's under our control. While it's not easy to fight what is hard wired into our own brains, it can be easier than many other battles we participate in outside of ourselves. It's certainly a more important (and probably much more effective) fight. I challenge you:

  1. What is one really attractive goal you have?
  2. What step, or even steps if you are really on it, have you taken in the last day to get you there?
  3. What about in the last week?
  4. The last month?
  5. The last year?
  6. The last decade?
  7. Don't beat yourself up over the answers to #2-#6. More importantly, what are you going to do TODAY?
  8. Now, to make it a little easier to stay on the ball tomorrow with your new ambition, what is something you can do tomorrow as well?
  9. And the next day?
  10. And the next?
  11. Good work --- keep it up! Momentum has a tendency of building, even from nearly nothing. You'll be there in seemingly no time if you keep it up. But you do have to START somewhere. Get moving. NOW.
-jr

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Food For Thought: What Do You Think of My Idea?

Chris Lyman, the CEO/Janitor of Fonality, made an insightful post on his blog regarding entrepreneurs and aspiring entrepreneurs here. I don't have much to add -- I thought it was good food for thought and wanted to file it somewhere so what better place then on my blog.

I think it's a good idea to fill your thoughts constantly with lots of inputs from all over. Just don't take any one of them too seriously. Consider everything and then decide where you want to go, on your own.

Here's an excerpt from Chris's post:

For 10 years now people have approached me with business ideas, and asked: "What do you think of my idea?"
[...]

And I have always taken their "What do you think of my idea?" very seriously. After all, asking for an opinion on something that you have labored over is difficult - it's a moment of vulnerability as you open yourself up to a potential battery of cerebral criticism and intellectual pugilism. It's not easy ...and I know this.

Thus, I listen to their pitches, I read their business plans, and opine. I try to give thoughtful advice on the "what-ifs" and the "how-tos" and I introspectively incant my "lessons learned."

But, it never sits right with me. And, slowly I have come to hate this question. And, finally I know why.

The entire act of questioning before leaping is fundamentally opposed to the true spirit of entrepreneurialism. Being an entrepreneur is about doing something NEW that has NEVER been done before, or doing something old in a totally NEW way. You just don't build a bad-ass business by being a me-too. In short, you gotta bring the NEW to outdo the OLD and the NEW can never be known because it hasn't happened yet and therefore ANY attempt to discuss the new as if you know what the hell you are talking about is an ego-trip and I don't want a ticket to that ride.

Let me illustrate my own idiocy at predicting the future:

In my last company, I had a Director of Sales named Jon Venverloh. One day, in late 1998, he showed up to work and said he was moving up north to take a sales job at Google. I laughed at him and asked him why the heck he would go to a company with no revenue and no revenue model. Remember this is 1998. He said: "I like Northern California better and I can ride my bike." Believing he was making a lousy career move, I wished him luck. Well, I just googled (hehe) Jon and he is currently listed as an Executive in charge of Federal Sales for Google, Inc.

Go figure. Nobody knows who is going to be the next Google. Least of all me. And the mere fact that you are asking means that you are doubting yourself and doubt is what you CANNOT have as you strive to create the NEW. Don't let the opining and the opinionated slow you down.

-jr

Friday, November 30, 2007

The Modem Free Generation




Wow, how time does fly. We now have, at least in the US and elsewhere, our first generation of Internet users that have no idea what a real modem sounds like. For these folks, this is the closest they'll ever get to one.

While I'm not as old as the photo above by any means, my first modem was an external U.S. Robotics 2400 bps (generously loaned to me by a friend's father whom I later bought a more affordable Gould 1200 bps modem from), so I suppose, in a way, even I was late to the game.

Sure, with Caller ID we still have modems in our phones (at least until end-to-end SIP can do away with all that) and xDSL is still really a glorified analog modem but they are stealthy. Poll a random nine year old on the street with a modem carrier audio sample or ask if they've ever cursed when they forgot and set ATM2 instead of ATM0 or ATM1 and you'll get a blank look (and probably a scream for mommy to come and take them away from the scary crazy guy though a few smart top-of-their-class nine year olds, just starting their introduction classes to CCIE certification of course, might think I'm talking about this which is at least in the right vein).

I've yet to see an xDSL modem that has a speaker (let alone supports the AT command set) and rarely do I hear the caller ID carrier unless I'm on a really cheap phone and pick up the phone fast enough.

Maybe we can bring it back in vogue by customizing our mobile phone ring tone to sound like the good old days. And, demanding that xDSL modem vendors, add speakers. On other hand, there aren't too many of these around anymore either. And, man, were those things slow.

AT
OK
ATZ
OK
ATM0
OK

-jr

Sunday, November 11, 2007

VOIP Troubleshooting With (the free) Wireshark Packet Analyzer



Wireshark is a network protocol analyzer. Some may recognize it by its former name, Ethereal. It's free (and open source), runs on multiple platforms (including Windows and Linux), and actively developed. For those doing VOIP installations or troubleshooting existing installations, the latest release has some very handy VOIP specific support.

It will create visuals representing captured SIP and associated RTP connections. You can drill down by clicking on specific spots on the graph to pull up the associated packet(s). You can generate reports (as well as graph) jitter, bandwidth usage, etc. Various ways of displaying the data to get a better idea of what's really going on.

The screen captures at the beginning of this post are from Wireshark. They show a graph of a VOIP (SIP) call (and a half) between two Snom SIP phones attached to an Asterisk-based PBX (the green/blue/purple image). And an analysis of the associated RTP session (including packet loss, jitter, delay). WS can even playback captured VOIP calls (at least if using PCM/G.711/ulaw).

-jr

Monday, November 5, 2007

Thinking In Percentages Not Absolutes (Investing)

Question: Which hurts your investment portfolio value the most?

  • You own $10,000 worth of a mutual fund representing the Nasdaq Composite index. The Nasdaq Composite, which opened at 2,795, drops by 200 points by the time the market closes today. Headlines scream about a large market loss.
  • You own $10,000 worth of stock in a company, which opened at $8.00/share and falls to $7.20/share by the time the market closes today.
Choose your answer. In the next day or so I'll post my answer, an explanation, and why I highlighted this scenario.

Thursday, October 25, 2007

(Better) Invoicing & Time Tracking for Contractors/Consultants

When I set out on my own again, especially once the consulting gigs started to really pick up, I needed a solution to handle invoicing, time tracking, and accounts receivable management. In the past, I'd known myself to procrastinate (gasp!) generating invoices.

The procrastination was really the symptom of something else: I'd never really taken the time to automate the process. I'd started off on the wrong foot to begin with. I was tracking minutes in text files, adding them up manually, etc. Further, even if I'd used a fancy system to track and generate the invoices, I have this apparent aversion to addressing, stamping, and walking to the mailbox. Guess I'm just lazy.

So, a bit back, I spent a few hours seeing what was out there these days. Ultimately I settled on three (hosted Web 2.0-ish, if you will) solutions as the major candidates that met my needs:


After getting test accounts with each of them I ultimately went with FreshBooks. The main thing that did it for me was that FreshBooks allowed me to send paper invoices without actually touching a stamp, envelope, or printing anything. Yep, they mail it for me and even include the return envelope with my address!

I do actually send all of my clients e-mail invoices -- since that has become much more acceptable these days -- avoiding hard copy whenever possible. However I like having the option and it can also be handy when someone is taking their time paying..

Technically, FreshBooks doesn't e-mail the invoices but sends out an e-mail with a URL that contains the invoice. While others include the invoice in the actual e-mail, I have found it nifty that FreshBooks' approach allows me to see who has viewed their invoice (and they even provide an RSS activity feed to track client invoice reads!).

Since going with FreshBooks, all three billing solutions have added plenty of functionality. And Cashboard, which was in beta when I first looked at it, is now out of beta. I may re-look at each of them at a later date, but I really am pretty satisfied with FreshBooks for the moment.

If you suspect you spend too much time on invoicing, take a look at what's out there these days!

-jr

Tuesday, October 9, 2007

California and SLO County School Connectivity (and Ideas!)

According to this data posted by K12HSN, 17% of schools state-wide are connected to the Internet (and, in turn, Internet2) at 100 Mbit/s or higher. What I found nifty is, upon zooming into the local schools here in San Luis Obispo County, that number jumps to 67% (fifty seven out of eighty four). You can see other data for SLO here. (You can zoom in on other areas of California there as well). With this foundation, some intriguing possibilities now exist.

Quick background: K12HSN is a state program funded by the California Department of Education, providing Network/Internet connectivity and related services to K-12. Through K12HSN, schools get access to CENIC/CalREN and, as a result, Internet2 as well as, of course, the Internet. CalREN, the California Research and Education Network, is specially designed to meet the unique requirements of these communities, and the majority of the state's K-20 educational institutions are connected to it. CENIC oversees CalREN and coordinates other related services for California public educational institutions. Internet2 is an R&D platform, for various research institutions both public and private (and, if you're under the impression that Internet2 is just about high speed connectivity, a bunch of network geeks, and some talk about tele-medicine, look here as well as as some of the following links to see how it's being used in the performing arts).

With this as a backdrop, interesting possibilities have emerged for local K-12 students. Here are some ideas:

  • The SLO County Office of Education could host an Internet2 Day where research projects and applications are demonstrated to promote awareness and spur ideas in the minds of researchers (read: students, teachers). Projects/applications discussed and demo'd might include collaboration, health sciences, arts & humanities, and science & engineering. It would reach across all disciplines.
  • The "economies of scale" necessary to have live expert guest lecturers teaching students statewide via video conferencing (and here). I'm talking about having the top professors, researchers, artists, politicians, etc. speak live to students across the state and have the capacity to take real-time Q&A from students. Sure beats watching a passive recorded video on television! And it's sure to intrigue students who might easily overlook great thinkers sitting still on a textbook page in front of them. You get the benefits of serendipity, live action, interaction, and young minds all rolled into one. This same infrastructure could be used to publicize to the larger student body things like state-wide competitions, which, at least traditionally, only the local and regional winners of contests have been able to visit when they head off to compete at the higher level. Why not spread the inspiration around?
  • Got more ideas? Post 'em!
How about it?

Monday, October 8, 2007

Can Technology Geeks Be (Good) Managers?

If you are a technology geek currently serving as a manager, you better figure out how to become a business manager, if you intend to lead a successful IT department, group, team, or project. You owe it to yourself, your direct reports, whomever you report to, your colleagues in other departments, and your company. You will get a bigger budget, better compensation, more respect from all of your constituents and stakeholders, greater cooperation for your projects to help them be more successful, and greater satisfaction from your career.

It's not all bad for the technology geek turned manager though. If you can grasp the business side, by taking a bit of initiative to learn it, and combine that with technology savvy (even if you let your direct reports worry about the deep down details) you can have the best of both worlds. The last thing technology geeks want are clueless managers. It doesn't matter whether they are clueless about business or about technology -- they are still going to make things more difficult, albeit unintentionally, for their employees.

IT managers should know how to write business plans, prepare budgets, use financial concepts competently such as: the difference between cash flow and profit as well as grasping present and future value calculations, tie projects to business objectives, communicate and be held accountable in business terms, systematically assess and explain risk and uncertainty in ways that relate to the overall business, and communicate with non-technology management in regards to strategy.

This doesn't mean you need an MBA. If you don't understand all of these concepts there are options:

  • Take a basic accounting course (or two) at your local community college
  • Sit down with your CFO, controller, or accountant and ask for some tutorial sessions
  • Buy some books. Ask your CFO, controller, or account for some recommendations (and get them to promise to answer your questions if you take the initiative by reading the books they suggest).
  • Ask your CEO if you can peak at the organization's overall business plan. Afterwards consider and discuss how your department, group, or project fits into the bigger picture. Ask if there are ways you might better consider and communicate your group's vision, goals, successes (and, yes, failures too) as part of the bigger picture.
  • I'll also try to highlight, in a future post, some specific resources that have helped me out.
-jr

Wednesday, October 3, 2007

Local company, Shopatron, gets $6m in Additional Funding

Congratulations to the folks over at Shopatron, a nifty San Luis Obispo (California) based company. Until relatively recently, they were called Firepoppy while Shopatron was the name of their primary product. They have picked up some additional capital and continue to be working hard on solving problems in their niche.

Shopatron solves problems for manufacturers that don't or cannot sell their products directly, namely connecting their customers (say, visiting their web site) with their retailer/distributor network. They do it in a way that is conducive to the customers desire to "buy now", with less hops to jump through, and make it a win-win all around (win-win-win, uh, win, really) .

It's one of those niches that makes a lot of sense once you hear about it and they've been working hard at perfecting it for a number of years now. And, since they are so focused on solving one particular problem space (and it's a real one at that, as best as I can tell), rather then solve every interesting opportunity that they run across haphazardly, they are sure to be successful.

Congrats Ed, Sean, Dave, and the rest of the crew over there.

Further Related: Links:

Tuesday, October 2, 2007

A Promising New Book: The Pragmatic CSO (Chief Security Officer)

Last week I ran across a book I had not seen before. From the looks of things it reasonably could have been entitled "The Pragmatic CIO/CTO/IT Director/IT Engineer/IT Consultant". It is actually called The Pragmatic CSO. CSO stands for Chief Security Officer. Even if your organization doesn't actually have a CSO, there is a de facto one -- whomever is in charge of IT.

Since anyone within the IT group involved in spec'ing solutions needs to have a connection to the underlying business drivers in order to get buy-in from management for their project to proceed, this book ought to be useful to IT manager and geek alike. At least those that want to see their budget requests approved. :-)

This appears to be a promising resource with some good food for thought and practical approaches all collected together in one place. And, to boot, the approaches that look to be discussed should be readily applicable beyond IT security, to any IT project. No IT project proposal will get very far without a business case.

The book's web site is http://www.pragmaticcso.com. It is available as a regular book or electronically. You can get a sample section e-mailed to you from the web site. Or you can d/l the introduction chapter directly here:

http://www.pragmaticcso.com/Pragmatic-CSO_introduction.pdf

I have only read through the Table of Contents and Introduction and poked around at a few reviews at security blogs I monitor. If anyone else gets a copy and reads through more of it before me, please share your comments.

-jr

Sunday, September 23, 2007

Dying 47-Year-Old Professor, Randy Pausch, Gives Exuberant ‘Last Lecture’

I just finished watching an all around nifty guy, Randy Pausch's, well, probably last lecture. :-( He is currently a professor at CMU. His specialty is human-computer interaction, such as virtual reality. He has done work with Disney and EA. Among other accomplishments, his most recent is Alice, which is an innovative and pragmatic educational programming language[1]. He was recently diagnosed with a dire case of cancer. This lecture was about achieving your childhood dreams -- and helping others achieve theirs. For a guy that knows he is about to die, he's got a great attitude about his life -- and life in general. Certainly, if we're looking for people to draw clues from in living our own lives, he's up there.

His wikipedia entry already has a brief overview and link to the video of the full lecture (1h:45m or so) so no reason for me to re-invent the wheel:

Professor Randy Pausch delivered his "Last Public Lecture", entitled "Really Achieving Your Childhood Dreams" at [[Carnegie Mellon University]] on September 18, 2007 [5] (the full version of which is viewable at http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5700431505846055184).

During this lecture, Randy Pausch was very upbeat and humorous, rapidly switching between standup comedy, insights on computer science and engineering education, advice on building multi-disciplinary collaborations, working in groups and interacting with other people, offering inspirational life lessons, and doing one-handed push-ups on stage.

This talk was modeled after an existing series of lectures where top academics were asked to think deeply about what matters to them, and then give a hypothetical "final talk", i.e., "what wisdom would you try to impart to the world if you knew it was your last chance?" And in Randy's case, this was more than an academic exercise.

Before he even started speaking, Randy got a long standing ovation from a large crowd of over 400 colleagues and students. When he motioned them to sit down, saying "make me earn it", some in the audience shouted back "you already did!".

Andries van Dam (a professor from Brown University) followed Randy with a tearful and impassioned speech praising Randy for his courage and leadership, calling him a role model and "a Mensch" (which in Yiddish means "someone to admire and emulate, of noble character").

Electronic Arts Inc. (maker of the popular "Sims" family of computer games with over 100 million copies sold) is now commercializing Randy's Alice system (http://www.alice.org/), and pledged to create in Randy's honor a memorial scholarship for women in computer science, in recognition of Randy's staunch support and mentoring of women in CS and engineering.

The president of CMU (Jared Cohon) spoke emotionally of Randy's humanity, and called Randy's contributions to CMU and to education "remarkable and stunning". He then announced that CMU will celebrate Randy's impact on the world by building and naming after Randy a raised pedestrian bridge that will connect CMU's new Computer Science building with their Center for the Arts, symbolizing the way Randy linked those two disciplines. It will be called the "Randy Pausch Memorial Footbridge".

Professor Pausch was named "Person of the Week" on ABC's World News with Charles Gibson on September 21. His last lecture has also attracted wide attention from the national media.

[1] Alice is designed to appeal to specific subpopulations not normally exposed to computer programming, such as middle school girls, by encouraging storytelling through a simple drag-and-drop interface. http://www.alice.org/

Thursday, September 20, 2007

Who Surveys the Surveyors?

(Questions That Every Survey Should Ask)

Four out five times I'll just toss out those surveys that get printed on the receipts from retailers, restaurants, coffeehouses, etc. If I'm looking for a distraction (or remember that I stashed one in my wallet the next time I'm there while I'm standing around in line anyhow) and the freebie I get for doing it entices me, I'll do one.

It's pretty frustrating to be willing to provide feedback only to discover the survey is your main gripe about the establishment. Based on my survey experiences, one of the following queries should be appended to every survey any company ever does. They basically all boil down to: "Did this survey suck?"

Q: On a scale of 1 to 5, how would you rate the friendliness of this survey?

Q: On a scale of 1 to 5, how would you rate the length of this survey?

Q: On a scale of 1 to 5, how would you rate the clarity of this survey?

Q: On a scale of 1 to 5, would you be likely to take a survey like this every again under the same pretenses?

If it's a written, online, or in-person survey (difficult to do with an automated phone survey) they might even ask something like: Do you have any ideas about how we might make this survey better?

If I had a great experience otherwise, well, we can all spell i-r-o-n-y, right?

-jr

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Verifying Your Financial Advisors Advice - Service provides watchdog for investors

See article @ http://www.pacbiztimes.com/index.cfm?go2=articles/wk_091707e

This is an interesting idea (follow article link above or see excerpts below). I think there might be some other ways of implementing this that could be even more useful but I certainly agree with the sentiment. And, for the price, it's a cheap second look at things to make sure you are not entirely getting simply "told a line" by your broker, financial advisor, financial planner, etc. while still being more formal than getting your friend "Bob" to take a quick look at your portfolio. Mostly what caught my eye was seeing another way for more folks to easily get a second set of eyes looking at their portfolio, ideally in a quasi-independent and professional manner, especially without the hired trying to take a big bite out of it themselves.

While it's not stated outright, it sounds like he's doing Monte Carlo simulations, so he's contrasting ones existing portfolio with a group of model portfolios of various supposed styles that have been back tested with historical data to supposedly ascertain their "risk". (The more mysterious part, at least to me, is just how to ascertain an individuals "risk" tolerance, which can be taken to mean many different things -- and whether that is even as relevant as the size of their portfolio relative to their overall net worth and their timeline for needing the principal back, but that's a digression for another day).

To compare this with another industry, this service is a bit like the automated security scans from the likings of ScanAlert (with the green "Hacker Safe" shield logo) that IT folks responsible for e-commerce sites have grown accustomed to. The results can be useful, sometimes annoying, but they also just might not mean anything. You still need to know their basis and how to interpret them for your particular environment.

Anyhow, it's not a perfect method but it's a start.

-jr

David Donaldson plans to revolutionize the investment industry by bringing accountability to financial advisers.

“I just can’t stand when I see people who are individual investors who get taken advantage of,” Donaldson said. “My goal is to be kind of a watch dog to make sure financial advisers are doing their job.”

On Aug. 27, he announced the launch of Advisor Check, a service that analyzes investment portfolios so that individual investors can see whether their financial advisers and asset managers are addressing their personal investment goals. Donaldson is the managing director and senior portfolio analyst for Advisor Check.

[....]

“It turns out what we found is a majority of people really want someone to give them a second look at their portfolio, but are afraid that if they go to someone else like a financial adviser, they’ll just be told what they want to hear,” Donaldson said, adding that he rushed to launch the service officially because of the current volatility of the market.

[....]

“I would say that about 79 percent of the portfolios we look at are improperly allocated and expose clients to more risk than they actually need to be taking,” Donaldson said.

Donaldson offers his clients an unbiased, third-party analysis. In order to avoid any conflict-of-interest, he does not offer advice or sell any services beyond a comprehensive portfolio analysis.

“If anything, it gives [investors] the ability to ask the right questions” of their advisers, he said.

“It gives financial advisers – if they do a good job – a lot of kudos for what they do, but if not, it’s a good reality check for them,” Donaldson said.

[....]

Thursday, August 16, 2007

I Don't Know. Really.

Sometimes we don't really know the answer but pretend we do. In fact, sometimes may be an understatement. Not knowing the answers -- or having enough data to have an informed opinion -- but pretending we do is not the foundation upon which to have a discussion to help yourself or someone else arrive at a more informed opinion.

This is particularly important with complex worldly issues (say, geopolitical problems that have the potential to create wars). Few of these types of issues have truly black and white answers. The "truth", such as it is in these cases, often lies within carefully selected -- yet still meaningful -- nuances that can only be honed after significant study and analysis.

Best case, we come off silly. Worst case, we, well, kill a few people. Thankfully we're all adaptable and like to better ourselves. So we can get better at all of this.

Get out there and vote but become truly informed first -- don't just sound informed to those that already agree with you. Be able to have an honest opinionated discussion with folks that don't agree with you and still walk away with an understanding of where they are coming from. If you can't do that, you probably don't know what you're talking about -- and should get back to reading, researching, and thinking before opening your mouth.

Anyhow, the excerpt (along with watching lots of West Wing episodes) that inspired this post (even though it was talking about managing software projects) is below:

True Factors

Next time someone tries to pin you down for an exact answer to an unknowable question — whether it's for a deadline date, a final project cost, or the volume of milk that would fit in the Grand Canyon — just start by taking the air out of the room: say "I don't know."

Far from damaging your credibility, this demonstrates the care you bring to your decision-making. You're not going to just say words to sound smart. It also levels the playing field by reframing the question as a collaborative conversation. By learning how exact your estimate needs to be (and why), you can work together to develop a shared understanding about the true factors behind the numbers.

—Merlin Mann, creator and editor of 43folders.com

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

More To Lose, Priceless Lessons

....and Why Wealth Is Best Acquired Neither Easily nor Difficultly
....and Personal Financial Literacy

I manage my own investment portfolio. For the most part, other than experimentation for educational purposes, I keep things pretty simple. I don't short stocks. I ignore options. My interest in the performance of the major indexes (e.g. Dow Jones Industrial, NASDAQ Composite, S&P 500) is mostly for entertainment purposes. I rarely consider fixed income securities (e.g. bonds, treasuries, etc), except during unusual situations when, effectively, due to the thesis of the investment in question, it really isn't a fixed income investment I'm making. I take long-only, and usually long-term oriented, positions in publicly traded stocks. Fractional interests in real businesses. Plain and simple.

My present approach, and seemingly most likely to remain permanent (though it will continue to go through maturity spurts as all good conclusions should), is based on quantitative fundamentals (i.e. the numbers on the balance sheets, cash flow, and income statements) combined with deep qualitative analysis. Purchase and sale price determination is based on a value-driven approach somewhat akin to Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett, Third Avenue, Longleaf, Sequoia, Mohnish Pabrai, and others. The math is not rocket science. In fact, if it wasn't for the surrounding analysis, my eight year old could probably be taught how to do it. If I have to whip out spreadsheets and make lots of assumptions it's probably not the investment for me.

Call me old fashioned, but I invest to make money and that also means doing so as efficiently and effectively as possible. I see no reason to look at higher branches when there are inevitably enough low hanging fruit around (which also happen to be where I'm less likely to break my neck if I slip and fall). I enjoy investing but I also have plenty of other things I enjoy spending my time on.

With varying degrees of success I've been doing this for the last decade. Unfortunately it wasn't until the last two to three years that I finally really had enough of the pieces together to be able to deliberately and confidently make transactions in which I could be more certain that the outcome was due to my careful analysis over simple dumb luck. So my lessons have been both highly profitable and, alas, combined with others, highly expensive. i.e. I'm not (economically) wealthy yet. :-)

I wouldn't take any of it back though for anything. Not even a million dollars. Why? Glad you asked. :-) Two main reasons, more to lose and priceless lessons, which are sort of just opposite sides of the same coin. You see if I'd started with a million dollars the lessons would have been proportionally that much more expensive. Investing is a cumulative learning activity where you can learn a lot from your mistakes and where constant reading, honest reflection, and careful analysis is necessary. It's also useful to have a long-term perspective and understand that short-term performance is not something that can actually be extrapolated from in estimating long-term performance. (Side note: Rarely do things go quite as planned, especially so in the short-term. In the longer-term, things are usually closer to plan. So, uh, plan accordingly?).

If I had started with a million bucks I'd not only be much poorer than I once was (relatively speaking) but I'd also have spent even more on those priceless lessons I've learned along the way. Worse, I might have been just too risk-averse to even learn some of the lessons I have -- after all there would have been more to lose. The lessons may have been priceless but it's still much easier to earn a few thousand (or tens of thousands) back than a million or two when you have to start all over from zero again.

Another thing I like about this path is that extreme wealth, without having great and painful lessons along the way to achieving it, can often make one too conservative and controlling and naive for their own long-term economic good. For example, having all your capital tied up in fixed income securities forever won't do much for increasing your buying power. (Or, I suppose, not being controlling enough is also a problem if you are a spendthrift partier which is really the exact same problem manifest in a different form).

Even if one has painful -- but useful -- lessons one may still not reflect upon them properly and/or for some reason or another not behave economically rationally when the rubber actually meets the road. Unfortunately the same is true for most of us who have never truly achieved significant wealth. We usually have incorrect or irrational attitudes amount money and wealth, managing it, saving it, growing it, etc. We are just as bad as many of the folks that inherit their money without good parental financial teachings or, at least, innate (rare) financial intuition. We just aren't quite as first hand knowledgeable that we're pissing all our wealth away. i.e. We don't have the historical memories of seeing all the zeroes in our bank account balances and thus we are even less convinced we even have the potential to have larger bank accounts ever -- lot alone again. We're more ignorant of our potential because we didn't have it once then lose it (yet). :-)

While you can't deposit potential in the bank, having it and not capitalizing on it (oh, a pun, heh) is just as awful as already having lots of wealth and pissing it all away. And, if you really stop to think about it, it probably hurts just as bad too.

I suppose the conclusion is that becoming wealthy should not be too hard nor too easy and it's important to pay attention to the hard learned lessons along the way without getting too down on oneself. At least if your goal is to achieve wealth and "keep" it.

Unfortunately, probably much to the chagrin of economists, we humans are not economically rational beasts as a rule. We're so full of exceptions, biases, heuristics, assumptions, etc, at least if my own experience is of any commonality, that I couldn't even begin to comprehend what rules we all do operate by. Collectively we're fairly economically rational but individually we're not so much. In some ways, that explains why wealth, at least great wealth, tends to collect in fewer hands rather than being broadly dispersed. This seems true not only within wealthy societies but geopolitically as well as best as I can tell.

So, anyhow, this brings me to the one investment, wealth, and personal finance related topic that I have been struggling with. You see, I get freaked out a lot these days when I talk to friends, family, and various other folks about their investment portfolios. Not because I think I'm super smart investor guy whose feet everyone else should bow to. Feel free, however. j/k :-). I just happen to have already learned the hard way (and, because I discovered a deep interest, and tried to take it up a notch as well, I'm ultra-aware of this problem domain).

Let's get more specific. It's not uncommon to hear that someone has bought some stock for their portfolio and their reasoning -- and it's usually the extant of it -- is that it's a "cool company", "someone I know told me about them and I trust their judgement", "growing lots", "in the news all the time", "safe bet that can't lose", etc. etc. Yeah, that's great but what's the investment thesis? How can one be sure the price paid was realistic? How will one know when it has reached or exceed fair value (at what price shall it be sold)?

Oh, yeah, that. Buying a security without an idea of what it's worth is like saying you'll consider yourself happy when you're successful; We can all understand the words in this proclamation, their individual meaning is straightforward enough, but the sentence is too vague to be beneficially to anyone including the person stating it. Define success my friend before you attempt to achieve it. Keyword being before.

Just because, and even if you are "right", the stock of a company you bought goes up in price after you buy it doesn't mean it'll go to any particular price. Buying stocks is not as simple as saying "I'll just buy and sell when it goes up". Goes up to what exactly? Oh, double what you paid for it? Well, any idea if the company is even remotely, even under the most optimistic valuation, worth that much? One in this circular situation may be relying more on hope more than prudence. Worse, they are guaranteed to not be able to remove emotion from what should be an entirely business-like transaction. It's hard to remove emotion from the transaction when the initial purchase reasoning was hardly a step beyond that.

Another metaphor at the risk of beating a dead horse: Committing to a project, without confirming the project is even worthwhile, and stating at the same time that we'll consider it complete when it's done. We'd probably define "done" somewhere. Perhaps we'd use a metric of some type or at least some outcome that is a bit more readily identifiable and tangible. Oh, and we'd probably not want to spend our time on the project if it's not worthwhile (e.g. overpriced or just not the optimal return for the risk or, worse case, pure hype) so we'd make sure to evaluate that before we jump in too.

It's not that any of these people are stupid. Mostly they are in different businesses of their own, they are busy enough with enjoying their lives, they just have no time regardless of interest level in understanding this stuff, they don't know any better and take too many clueless folks or conventional wisdom articles at face value, they have zero interest in understanding this stuff (nothing wrong with that), they think hiring outside assistance is too expensive, etc. None of them is stupid at all. They just have other things going on.

So a goal I have is to figure out how to help improve the overall personal financial literacy of the populace. After all, we're all in this together and zero-sum game or not (depending on your view), there's plenty to go around for us all to be more than well off.

-jr

Friday, August 10, 2007

Thinking Differently About Problem Solving

We are obsessed with coming up with solutions but rarely do we step back to truly consider the most effective process for generating optimal solutions consistently. And we're quite reliant on mental heuristics, which are certainly helpful in our day to day lives, that deceive us into making intuitive but sub-optimal decisions in ways we are unaware of. And, finally, we're influenced by conventional wisdom which may not be so, well, wise.